On October 19, Canadians will elect a new government. As of late September, it was still very much anyone’s game. About the only thing that seems off the table is a strong Conservative majority. We could see a Conservative minority, an NDP minority, a Liberal minority, a Liberal-led coalition or an NDP-led coalition. Put all the options on a wall, throw a dart, and that’s about a close as anyone can guess at this point.
So how would the energy industry, fare under each of these options?
First off, a Conservative minority would likely mean the status quo – support for all major pipeline project. However, despite being in power for nine years, none have been built. The Conservatives support the oilsands, and have suggested Canada could become an “energy superpower.” A Conservative government would probably be the most favourable for the energy sector.
Under an NDP minority, there would be little to no support for Keystone XL. The question is, since it has already been approved by the National Energy Board, could it still go ahead with American approval? Likely yes. Northern Gateway, also with NEB approval but with numerous outstanding conditions would likely be kyboshed. Don’t expect much, if any support for the oilsands under an NDP government. A substantial carbon tax could be a possibility. But the NDP also want to push development of more refining in Canada, with a focus on value-added jobs. Depending on if refineries are built or pipelines cancelled, this option would likely be the darkest option for the industry.
A Liberal minority would see changes to the National Energy Board, changes to environmental assessments and phase out of subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. When it comes to pipelines, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is against Northern Gateway, for Keystone XL, and he hasn’t said much about Energy East. This option doesn’t seem a lot different from the NDP option.
A coalition between the NDP and Liberals would likely mean several of those pipelines will lose support. The better question is will any be built? As for the oilsands, it will be a tough slog in an environment that has already seen billions of dollars of projects sidelined by low oil prices.
A bonus, highly improbable option is a Green Party government. If that should happen, better hope you can convert your drilling rig derricks into windmills, because that might be all the usage you can get out of them.
On Sept. 22, U.S. presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton announced she’s opposed to the Keystone XL pipeline. In the end, it might not matter who is elected in Ottawa. The fate of our industry is often in others’ hands, be it the resident of the White House in Washington or the royal palace in Riyadh.
So who do you vote for? Your call, but choose one.
